Prediction: Democrats will lose Minnesota 7th Congressional District

By Lauren Leazenby

According to Reuters, about 10% of House races are hotly contested, battleground races this election. Democrats will likely have a net gain of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and will almost certainly maintain their House majority — but there are several districts they stand to lose.

One of these is Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, where Democrat incumbent Rep. Collin Peterson will likely lose to his Republican challenger, Michelle Fischbach. FiveThirtyEight’s projection forecasts a win for Fischbach in 74 out of 100 statistical scenarios.

The polls show a similar story. The latest poll, conducted by Tarrance Group Aug. 2-5 among 413 likely voters, has Rep. Peterson at 42% while Michelle Fischbach sits at 52%.

A flip to the Republican side is not only statistically likely for this seat, but expected considering the political makeup of this rural, mostly agricultural area. Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District voted strongly for Trump in 2016.

Rep. Peterson is a longtime conservative Democrat who has held his seat since 1991.  He is the chairman of the House Agricultural Committee and has been consistently reelected in this conservative area thanks to his focus on the farmers in his district.  He also voted against President Trump’s impeachment in 2019.

The favored candidate, Fischbach, is Minnesota’s former lieutenant governor. In her campaign promises, she has doubled down on Rep. Peterson’s focus on the farmers and, additionally, has pledged to protect the Second Amendment and oppose abortion legislation.

One thought on “Prediction: Democrats will lose Minnesota 7th Congressional District

  1. As someone from a very blue area of Minnesota, it always takes me off guard to see Republicans making strides in this state. Your evidence is nicely laid out and organized though, and I think you’re right about this election’s outcome.

    Like

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