By Emma McNamee
When the polls close and all the ballots are counted on November 3, 2020 who will have control of the United States Senate? Will Republicans have maintained their six-year hold on half the legislative branch, or will Democrats manage to flip the majority in their favor?
Based on the predictions of FiveThirtyEight, the Democratic Party is favored to retake the Senate. This forecast is the result of numerous projected election outcomes, where Democrats regain the Senate in 77 of 100 scenarios. Of course, that still leaves Republican’s an edge to maintain the Senate, but their victory looks less and less likely as the Election approaches.
The Economist predicts a similar outcome, with Democrats having a five in six chance of taking the Senate, versus Republican’s one in six. The general consensus of 270-To-Win’s multiple forecasts—which includes input from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and various polling data—have all put Democrats in a strong position to be victorious in the Senate.
With anywhere between three and nine true toss-ups races this close to the election, as well as a handful of narrow leads across various states that could end up changing, it’s difficult to determine the exact make-up of the 117th Congress. The Democrat predictions are hard to dispute, with so many forecasts agreeing across the board who will take the majority. The trouble comes with knowing which of the still competitive elections will go to a certain party. Races are simply too close right now to say, with complete confidence, which of the many contested states will go to Democrats or Republicans. That being said, FiveThrityEight does project the most likely outcome—with a 13.7 percent chance of realization—as the Democrats taking five seats, putting them at a 52-seat-majority for the 2021 Congress.